Hoe Abonneren?

Eerlijk Advies »

De Grote Depressie van de 21st eeuw...

Internationaal ADVIES verstrekt door experten met +45 jaar ervaring: krijg toegang tot +500 pagina's met onafhankelijk financieel advies (dagelijkse, wekelijkse en maandelijkse updates)!

Dit krijg je »

  1. Toegang tot dagelijks financieel nieuws en updates.
  2. Toegang tot de volledige site, een + 500 pagina's levend boek.
  3. Ontvang belangrijke email alerts en breaking news.
  4. Persoonlijke email consultaties en coaching. (beperkt)
  5. Gratis analyse van uw portefeuille & vermogen (beperkt)
  6. Ons advies is EERLIJK, ONAFHANKELIJK.
  7. Wij vertellen ook WAT en HOE je het moet doen.
  • 45 year of excellence.png
  • vault nl.png
  • onroerendgoed crash.gif
  • CRS vs FATCA.png
  • Goldonomic
  • Goldonomic
  • Goldonomic
  • Goldonomic
  • Goldonomic
  • Ben zeer trots dat ik deze stap heb gezet. Het voelt aan als het bezit van een waardevolle eigendom die me meer zekerheid en vrijheid geeft in mijn leven. Ik moet u hiervoor bedanken want zonder de coaching en het advies van het afgelopen jaar was ik daar nooit geraakt.

    P.L.

  • Men kan nog steeds op een wettelijke manier fysiek goud veilig (en verzekerd) opslaan buiten het banksysteem en buiten politiek bereik. Wij weten hoe! Een bankrekening openen in het buitenland?....wij weten HOE en waar. Laat U vooral niet afschrikken door Overheids-propaganda. Een rekening openen in het buitenland is voorlopig nog steeds wettelijk!

    Goldonomic

  • Kapitaal-kontroles zijn een zekerheid - 2018 is "alles" in plaats. Kontroles (Int. fiscale uitwisseling) zijn er nu al. De Vermogens-Belasting wellicht ook. Vijf na twaalf om je schapen op een veilige plek te laten grazen...terwijl dit WETTELIJK nog mogelijk is...Wij weten hoe!

    KS

  • Centrale Bankiers slaan massaal Goud op vanwege de komende devaluatie van de Euro en de US-Dollar...Als centrale banken grote hoeveelheden GOUD kopen, waarom zou U dan ook maar voor een seconde de negatieve commentaren van de mainstream media en derde-knoops-gat analysten geloven?!

    JB

Gratis Nieuwsbrief

31
juli
2017

INFLATIE en DEFLATIE begrijpen....

 Posted on July 11, 2008 - Francis D. Schutte

It more and more occurs to me that people have not the slightest idea of what Inflation and Deflation are and what the consequences are for the investor. Also, few understand the difference between Inflation and what is defined as Hyper-inflation.

The definitions of Inflation and Deflation will be skipped as these have been explained in detail earlier under Academics.

In economics, hyperinflation is inflation that is "out of control," a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a fiat paper currency loses its value. Formal definitions vary from a cumulative inflation rate over three years approaching 100% (Today, many goods exceed the 100%) to "inflation exceeding 50% a month." In informal usage the term is often applied to much lower rates. As a rule of thumb, normal inflation is reported per year, but hyperinflation is often reported for much shorter intervals, often per month.

Another definition of Hyperinflation is any inflation rate over 20% and/or any condition where prices rise faster than the Money Supply. This is another important reason why authorities in the USA have stopped publishing the M3 figures, why it is so hard to find correct figures for the EU and why all Inflation Indexes are cooked.

The definition used by most economists is "an inflationary cycle without any tendency toward equilibrium." A vicious circle is created in which more and more inflation is created with each iteration of the cycle. Although there is a great deal of debate about the root causes of hyperinflation, it becomes visible when there is an unchecked increase in the money supply or drastic debasement of coinage, and is often associated with wars (or their aftermath - Iraq, Afghanistan), economic depressions, and political or social upheavals. Because taxation and financing have become impossible, in the final stage, authorities monetize their debt.

The reason why it can be so hard to ‘understand’ we have (hyper)inflation is that in a (hyper)-inflationary cycle and certainly in the initial stage NOT ALL PRICES RISE. Some prices, by name of these of the HOCG will even tend to fall.

As explained by Von Mises, as a result of Fractional Reserve Banking, Fiat Money and inflation, at a certain point, the prices of HOCG (High order capital goods) tend to fall and those of LOCG (low order consumer goods) tend to rise. In other words, we have a (hyper)inflation cycle but we still see some prices fall. We have (hyper)inflation and deflation at the same time. Rather confusing.

The shift from HOCG to LOCG exists because of a misallocation of funds. In other words, funds that should have been used to improve the agriculture and to increase the energy supply, were misallocated to for example the Real Estate market, and were used in the dot.com and stock market bubbles. However, because of oversupply, at a certain point, the demand for HOCG dries up and as suppliers/manufactures  scramble to sell the overstock, interest rates go up and prices of HOCG come down.

Meantime, no or little attention has been paid to the LOCG. No new investments nor research were made (because of the misallocation of funds there was no incentive), existing installations/plants became inefficient and outdated. Politicians did not understand the problem either and used the mass psychology to earn votes by not allowing the construction of Nuclear Power and Clean Coal plants, by making it difficult and even impossible to drill for more oil and to built new petrochemical refineries. No attention was given to the failing supply of LOCG. At a certain point, we see a growing disequilibrium between supply and demand (Peak oil and food commodities) and we end up having an inelastic supply (peak oil) and a rising or stable demand for the LOCG . Prices  start rising at an abnormal rate. There is inflation and sometimes hyperinflation.

Important is to understand that this is the direct result of Fractional Reserve Banking and Fiat money creation by the Banks and Political authorities. In other words, they are at the very origin of the evil they are blaming the speculators for today.

A recession and depression starts and last until all of the misallocated funds have been recycled correctly into the LOCG. The longer the cleaning cycle is delayed by subsequent credit injections  by Banks and Politicians (more fiat money, more misallocations and more inflation), the stronger and pain fuller the cleaning action and potential crash of the HOCG and the recession and depression.

If authorities really mean to stop inflation, they should stop Fractional Reserve Banking and the creation of Fiat Money.

Price increase of LOCG y/y 1 year 3 years *
     
Steel 40% to 70% 150%
Chemicals 25% 75%
Shipping costs 375%  
Crude oil 43% 129%
Ethanol  21% 63%
Heating oil 44% 132%
Natural gas 77% 231%
Unleaded gas 40% 120%
Corn 60% 180%
Soy beans 26% 78%
Aluminum 35% 105%
Copper 26% 78%
     
* extrapolated over 3 years    
     
Price decrease of HOCG    
     
Real Estate -20% to -60%
     

Categories: Pers, Financieel Nieuws, Wat is Inflatie?, (hyper) Inflatie & LOCG, Hyperinflatie Scenario, Academie, economie, geld en kapitaalmarkten

Twitter

RT @LukeGromen: Fed just preannounced another $75B repo for tomorrow. By way of context, fiscal YTD gross issuance of USTs has averaged ~$…

Goldonomic Goldonomic

RT @S_Mikhailovich: On the way to JFK, I asked the cab driver what he thought about the economy. He proceeded to explain how the US used th…

Goldonomic Goldonomic

RT @PeterSchiff: The financial media and Wall Street are downplaying the significance of the N.Y. Fed's emergency injection of 53B into the…

Goldonomic Goldonomic

RT @zerohedge: Oil To Hit $100? Half Of Saudi Oil Output Shut After Drone Strikes Cripple World's Largest Oil Processing Facility https://t

Goldonomic Goldonomic